Exim Bank’s New Initiative to forecast India’s merchandise exports on quarterly basis
Merchandise Exports to grow at 5.96 percent for the fourth quarter of FY2018 over the corresponding quarter of the previous year
Mumbai, April 11, 2018: In a first of kind initiatives, the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has said that the India’s merchandise exports is expected to witness a growth rate of 5.96 percent during the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2018 over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
The forecast is based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model. Based on the model (which considers 2011-12 as the base year), Exim Bank’s leading index for the country’s exports (ELI) came in at 113.56 for the fourth quarter of 2017-18.
The model and the forecast result has been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As a part of its initiative, Exim Bank will forecast the growth in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. Similarly Exim Bank would release such forecast report in the coming quarters beginning with the first week of the months of June, September, December and March, for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for April-June 2018 would be released during the first week of June 2018.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. Based on the model and the derived ELI, an attempt is made to forecast growth in India’s merchandise exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in merchandise exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
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