Bengaluru: According to the 11th Annual Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast, Internet Protocol (IP) traffic will quadruple, year-on-year between 2015 and 2020. India’s Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 12 billion DVDs per year, 1 billion DVDs per month, or 1 million DVDs per hour. The Indian digitization transformation, based on the adoption of personal devices and deployment of machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will have a greater impact on traffic growth. Over the next five years, in India, there will be 1.9 billion networked devices, up from 1.3 billion in 2015, faster broadband speeds (average fixed broadband speed to increase 2.5-fold from 2015 to 2020 – from 5.1 Mbps to 12.9 Mbps) and the increased consumption of video. Collectively, these variables are expected to help IP traffic in India to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34 percent – as against a corresponding global CAGR of 22 percent.
Video services and content continue to be the dominant leader compared with all other applications.
In India, total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined will be 75% of all Internet traffic in 2020, up from 51% in 2015.
Key India Findings:
o In India, IP traffic will reach 5.6 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 1.4 Exabytes per month in 2015
o In India, busy hour Internet traffic will grow 7.2-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 48%
o In India, Internet traffic will reach 4.1 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 946 Petabytes per month in 2015
o In India, Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 12 billion DVDs per year, 1 billion DVDs per month, or 1 million DVDs per hour
o In India, mobile data traffic will reach 1. 7 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 149 Petabytes per month in 2015
o India’s Mobile was 11% of total IP traffic in 2015, and will be 31% of total IP traffic in 2020
o In India, mobile data traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 77x the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005
o India’s mobile was 15.7% of total Internet traffic in 2015, and will be 41.7% of total Internet traffic in 2020
o India’s Fixed Wifi was 52.6% of total Internet traffic in 2015, and will be 47% of total Internet traffic in 2020
o In India, IP video will be 81% of all IP traffic in 2020, up from 63% in 2015
o In India, consumer IP video traffic will be 83% of consumer IP traffic in 2020, up from 68% in 2015
o In India, business IP video traffic will be 66% of business IP traffic in 2020, up from 37% in 2015
o In India, HD will be 49.8% of IP Video traffic in 2020, up from 19.3% in 2015 (68.8% CAGR)
o Total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 75% of all Internet traffic in 2020, up from 51% in 2015
o In India, consumer Internet video traffic will be 76% of consumer Internet traffic in 2020, up from 53% in 2015
o In India, business Internet video traffic will be 66% of business Internet traffic in 2020, up from 39% in 2015
o In India, Internet-Video-To-TV traffic will increase 7-fold between 2015 and 2020 (46.4% CAGR)
o In India, HD will be 62.0% of Internet video traffic in 2020, up from 26.8% in 2015 (71.5% CAGR)
o In India, Internet gaming traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 49%
o In India, PCs will account for 2% (43.8 million) of all networked devices in 2020, compared to 3% (44.5 million) in 2015, (-0.3% CAGR)
o In India, Tablets will account for 2% (44.0 million) of all networked devices in 2020, compared to 1% (12.1 million) in 2015, (29.4% CAGR)
o In India, portable devices such as smartphones and tablets accounted for 17% of IP traffic in 2015, and will be 48% of IP traffic in 2020
o In India, 4K TVs will account for 18% (9.5 million) of all flat panel TVs in 2020, compared to 2.1% (246,025) in 2015, (107.6% CAGR)
o 69% of all networked devices will be mobile-connected in 2020
o In India, there will be 572,934 households (2.0% of all Internet households) generating more than 500 gigabytes per month in 2020
Key Findings & Milestones from Global Traffic Projections and Service Adoption Trends
1.) Stable growth in IP and Internet Traffic
o 2.3 zettabytes is equivalent to 12 hours of streaming music per day of the year per capita or 33 hours of ultra HD video streaming for each person on earth
Regional IP Traffic Growth Details
2.) IPv6 Adoption Supports Global Digitization
3.) Fixed Broadband Speeds Nearly Double
4.) Smartphone Traffic will surpass PC Traffic
5.) Video Continues to Dominate Internet Traffic (with New Emerging Trends)
6.) Service Adoption Trends: Residential, Consumer Mobile and Business
7.) Global Wi-Fi Expansion
8.) Consumer and Business Users Prefer Mobile Over Fixed networks
Cisco VNI Methodology
The Cisco VNI Global Forecast and Service Adoption study for 2015 to 2020 rely upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report. Over its 11-year history, Cisco VNI research has become a highly regarded measure of the Internet’s growth. National governments, network regulators, academic researchers, telecommunications companies, technology experts and industry/business press and analysts rely on the annual study to help plan for the digital future.
Sanjay Kaul, Managing Director, Service Provider Business, Cisco India & SAARC –
“India finds itself in the middle of a digital revolution and, by 2020 Internet traffic will be equivalent to 249x the volume of the traffic in 2005, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 33% y-o-y. Much of this growth will be fueled by massive consumer adoption of personal devices and use of machine-to-machine connections. The continued increase of mobile data traffic, networked devices and M2M connections will impact healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, retail, transportation and other key industries, substantially, as the next decade dawns. Considering this, network architecture must be programmed to meet the requisite demands and manage the data volume. Deploying advanced network infrastructure requires a next-gen approach to withstand the digital vortex.”
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