Statement on Economic Survey 2015-16 from Richard Rekhy, CEO, KPMG in India
- While the growth-range forecast of 7 to 7.75 per cent for FY17 is lower than earlier projections, however looking at the current global economic scenario, it is significant. The large growth range given reflects the instability in the Economic environment, which in turn reflects the challenge at hand in navigating the economy through in the coming financial year. Increase in macro-stability, steady growth
forecasts and relenting inflation make for a conducive growth combination. It is crucial to differentiate between what is important and what is urgent. Addressing key problems such as scaling up investment, downsizing subsidies, creating a predictable and clean tax policy environment, and quickening disinvestment might need to be the milestones in the short-term road map for the Indian economy.
- A key point to note is that the economic survey assumes a normal rainfall this year. In case we end up having a third consecutive year of deficit rainfall, it will play havoc with rural demand, significantly increasing the already stressed rural economy, leading to significant impact on the overall economy.
- The Economic Survey shows that although the economy is on the upswing, it faces downside risks from a muted global economy, impacting exports and inflow of investments, leading to challenges in job creation. Clearly, the Government has an unenviable task at hand to significantly accelerate growth in the economy by focusing on rural demand, de-stressing banks and increasing public spending without impacting the fiscal discipline. It is important that the Rural sector in given importance as it generates maximum employment in agriculture and non-agriculture activity.
- The mid-term economic review had indicated that the medium-term fiscal framework could be relaxed to boost public spending. However, the economic survey has prompted the government to stick to the target of 3.5 per cent, in order to maintain credibility. It is important to maintain the fiscal deficit target as this would create more space for monetary policy to stimulate growth.
