RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS

Tuvalu’s economy has experienced a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. After falling for three consecutive years in 2020-22, GDP growth rebounded strongly at 7.9 percent in 2023, driven by the resumption of construction activity, the trade recovery, and higher government spending. GDP growth in 2024 is estimated to have reached 3.3 percent, supported by the continued effects of reopening and major infrastructure projects. Since peaking at 14.2 percent in 2022Q3, inflation has been trending down and slowed to 1.2 percent in 2024, in line with global food and commodities prices and continued easing of shipping bottlenecks.

The economic recovery is expected to continue, but growth is projected to moderate gradually over the medium term. Growth in 2025 is projected at 3 percent, driven by the construction of the new phase of the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project and an increase in public spending. While externally financed projects are expected to continue to support economic activities, growth is projected to decline gradually to around 1.8 percent over the medium term, due to sluggish productivity growth, increasing emigration, and vulnerability to climate events. Inflation is expected to remain below 2 percent in 2025, reflecting the negative CPI at end-2024 and lower global commodity prices, and to rise gradually to 2.5 percent over the medium term, aligning with inflation dynamics of Tuvalu’s trading partners.

The fiscal balance is projected to turn to a surplus in 2025, reflecting higher grants, but would deteriorate again starting in 2026. Higher grants are expected to more than offset the increase in expenditures and improve the fiscal balance from a deficit of 7 percent of GDP in 2024 to a surplus of 2.9 percent of GDP in 2025. Over the medium term, grants are projected to gradually decline to historical levels of around 27 percent of GDP, while current expenditure pressures would remain elevated. As a result, fiscal balances are expected to deteriorate gradually and reach -6.8 percent of GDP by 2030. Because the projected withdrawals from Tuvalu’s sovereign funds are not sufficient to fully finance the fiscal deficits, foreign financing will be required to close the financing gap. Under these baseline projections, Tuvalu is assessed to remain at a high risk of debt distress.

Downside risks to the outlook remain high. The global environment has significantly changed this year, reflecting escalated trade tensions, heightened policy uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. While Tuvalu’s export exposure is limited, heightened global uncertainty and volatility could affect Tuvalu’s external revenues, including from its internet domain, fishing licenses, and development assistance, and significantly impact Tuvalu’s public finances, external position, and growth outlook. Global risks of heightened trade tensions and higher commodity prices could also increase inflation. A sharp downward correction in financial market returns could affect the performance of Tuvalu’s sovereign funds. Underperformance of public corporations could cause fiscal risks, and further loss of CBRs would severely disrupt cross-border payments. An acceleration of outward migration would exacerbate labor shortages. Extreme climate events and climate change remain major risks to Tuvalu’s economic outlook. Upside risks include higher fishing licenses and grants and greater structural reform momentum, which could accelerate economic growth.

FISCAL POLICY

Fiscal policy should balance ensuring fiscal sustainability and supporting Tuvalu’s development priorities. Tuvalu’s high vulnerability to external shocks requires fiscal sustainability and adequate buffers against downside risks. Meanwhile, the government faces significant near-term spending pressures in order to deliver essential public services, while also having to address medium-term climate adaptation costs and labor shortages stemming from increasing emigration.

A multi-pronged fiscal strategy is required to address these challenges. Given persistent fiscal deficits and Tuvalu’s limited fiscal space, the main elements of the strategy should include: i) gradually reducing fiscal deficits; ii) increasing spending for priority areas; and iii) appropriately using fiscal buffers to stabilize fiscal accounts, cushion against shocks, and address long-term challenges. IMF staff’s simulations show that reducing the fiscal deficit gradually to around 2.3 percent of GDP by 2030 (compared to 6.8 percent of GDP in the baseline scenario) by utilizing the returns of the Tuvalu Trust Fund and the Consolidated Investment Fund (CIF) to finance deficits would keep public debt on a downward path. The domestic current balance would provide an appropriate anchor and is expected to improve to -40 percent of GDP by 2045 under the consolidation scenario, and the value of the buffer fund (CIF) would stabilize at around 40 percent of GDP, which is needed to cover major shocks and downside risks.

The recommended fiscal strategy entails a combination of revenue mobilization, expenditure rationalization, and resource reprioritization measures. Expenditure measures should primarily focus on unwinding the recent increases in current expenditure, including containing the increase in the wage bill, implementing cost-saving measures for the Medical Referral Scheme and overseas scholarships, unwinding the increase in goods and services spending, and cutting broad-based utility subsidies. Revenue mobilization should prioritize strengthening the compliance and efficiency of tax collection, while considering reviewing tax policies and exploring options to boost tax revenue and streamline tax incentives. Part of the savings from the above measures should be redirected to areas such as targeted protection for the most vulnerable, infrastructure, human capital, and climate resilience.

Improving public financial management (PFM) can help manage revenue volatility and fiscal risks. The authorities have made progress in PFM, including introducing the new Financial Management Information System and formulating the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework. The publication of Tuvalu’s Fiscal Risk Reports is also welcome. Further efforts are needed to improve budget reliability, strengthen investment management to enhance absorption capacity, implement climate budget tagging, enhance fiscal reporting and transparency on extra-budgetary funds and SOEs, and reinforce procurement management.

FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES

Establishing effective regulatory and supervisory frameworks is urgently needed. Priorities include strengthening the statutory role and expanding the supervisory perimeter of the Banking Commission of Tuvalu (BCT), issuing the proposed new prudential standards, enforcing the timely submission of prudential returns, and addressing delays in the audits of the financial statements of the financial institutions. These measures should be supported through adequate resourcing of the BCT to conduct both on-site and off-site supervision.

Continued efforts are needed to strengthen Tuvalu’s connectivity to the global payment system and improve financial inclusion. Tuvalu’s membership of the Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering is a welcome step, and the authorities should continue to strengthen the legal framework and compliance. Efforts to address Correspondent Banking Relationship pressures should also take into account a potentially low ML/TF risk environment in Tuvalu and focus on the outreach to the key foreign regulatory authorities, including a corridor risk assessment. The ongoing efforts to modernize banking services, including the recent launch of Tuvalu’s first ATMs, can help overcome geographical barriers and improve efficiency. Improving financial literacy and establishing a reliable national digital ID system are also crucial for financial inclusion. Meanwhile, introducing digital services should consider supervisory capacities and ensure financial integrity.

STRUCTURAL REFORMS

Structural reforms need to be carefully prioritized, focusing on addressing development bottlenecks and attaining higher growth potential. Priorities should include: i) collaborating with local communities to effectively develop the reclaimed land; ii) improving internet connectivity and leveraging IT technology to deliver more public services; iii) ensuring proper maintenance of key infrastructure assets, particularly transportation and utilities including renewable energy; iv) strengthening SOE governance and performance, accompanied by reviewing utility pricing to ensure cost recovery; and v) exploring economic diversification in sectors with higher potential, including agricultural products such as coconut, eco-tourism, and commercial fishery.

Mitigating the impact of emigration and enhancing climate resilience are crucial. While outward emigration has supported remittances and consumption, measures to enhance both human capital and labor supply are required to address labor shortage issues. The authorities should focus on improving education access and quality, enhancing training, attracting returning migrants, and promoting skill transfer. Facilitating female labor force participation could help bridge significant gender gaps in employment, while alleviating labor shortages. Tuvalu should continue to engage with development partners to secure climate financing and implement major climate-resilient projects. In addition, the authorities need to further enhance disaster management through the enforcement of amended building codes, the use of risk maps to inform planning, and the strengthening of community disaster preparedness. Accelerating renewable energy production can lower Tuvalu’s energy costs, reduce its external sector vulnerability, and enhance energy security.

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1. Dominica’s economy has continued its expansion. Real GDP grew by 3.5 percent in 2024, supported by a recovery in tourism and targeted development investment to boost economic capacity and competitiveness. Inflation has eased from its 2023 peak of 7 percent, averaging 3.1 percent in 2024. Tourism arrivals have surpassed pre-pandemic levels by roughly 32 percent, but the composition has shifted towards cruise visitors over stayovers. The current account (CA) deficit narrowed by 2 percentage points to 32¼ percent of GDP in 2024, reflecting higher tourism receipts. The labor market recovery remains uneven, however, with formal employment lagging behind overall growth.
2. Fiscal imbalances have narrowed, but public debt remains high and above pre-pandemic levels. The primary deficit narrowed to 2 percent of GDP in FY2023/24 and is projected to move into a modest surplus of 0.1 percent of GDP in FY2024/25. This improvement reflects the impact of recent tax measures—including higher excise duties on sugary drinks, alcohol, tobacco, and diesel—and expected moderation in capital expenditures mainly related to slow implementation rates and capacity constraints. While public debt has fallen in recent years after peaking at 112½ percent of GDP in FY2020/21 following successive natural disaster events and the pandemic shock, it remains high relative to its ECCU peers at around 100 percent of GDP.
3. The financial system is stable and liquid, with a mixed credit picture and vulnerabilities that require careful monitoring. Bank credit has declined further since 2023 reflecting ongoing de-risking amid persistent balance sheet challenges. Despite adequate capitalization, bank sovereign and overseas exposures remain elevated, while improvements in non-performing loans (NPLs) have been slow with levels exceeding prudential guidelines alongside still fragile provisioning. Meanwhile, the credit union (CU) sector is expanding its lending portfolio rapidly, despite weak capitalization, high NPLs, and limited provisioning—all of which breach supervisory thresholds in aggregate. The growing systemic importance of CUs—which now account for 53 percent of total private sector credit—highlights a need to close supervisory gaps by modernizing regulatory frameworks to better safeguard financial sector stability.
4. Dominica’s economy is expected to continue expanding, underpinned by ongoing development investment. The economy is projected to grow by 4¼ percent in 2025, supported by ongoing strategic investment in flagship infrastructure projects to boost capacity in tourism and transition to lower-cost geothermal energy. Growth is expected to converge towards 2 percent over the longer term, as major capital projects wind down and fiscal consolidation intensifies. The CA balance is projected to improve steadily to its norm by 2028 on the back of increased tourism, a normalization of investment imports, and reduced fuel imports with the rollout of geothermal energy. The primary balance is projected to strengthen gradually to 2.0 percent of GDP by 2030 on current policies and as capital expenditures recede amid declining CBI inflows, falling short of fiscal rule obligations. Public debt is projected to decline to 69¾ percent of GDP by 2035 yet remains at high risk of debt distress and above the prudential currency union debt benchmark.
5. Risks to the outlook are elevated and tilted to the downside. Escalating trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and commodity price volatility pose external risks to tourism, trade, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Pressure on global interest rates may lead to market losses on overseas investments, with spillovers to domestic credit and FDI. Extreme natural disaster shocks pose additional risks to growth. Domestically, fiscal underperformance, rising arrears, and shortfalls to expected CBI inflows could weaken economic activity, jeopardize flagship projects, exacerbate imbalances, and potentially trigger debt distress. Weakness in the local financial system could amplify these shocks. At the same time, better-than-expected growth dividends from ongoing flagship projects pose an upside risk to the long-term outlook.
6. More ambitious fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce economic imbalances and debt vulnerabilities, mitigate disaster risks, and help reinforce prospects for resilient growth. The economic expansion presents an opportunity to rebuild critical fiscal buffers. These include: i) achieving fiscal rule targets by maintaining a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP from 2026 onward to reduce public debt below 60 percent of GDP by 2035; and ii) adequately capitalizing the Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience Fund (VRF) to help insure against natural disaster shocks.[1] Reaching these goals will require identifying an estimated EC$75 million in cumulative fiscal consolidation measures over two years to sustain 3½ percent of GDP primary surplus from FY2026/27. The consolidation strategy should focus on improving non-CBI fiscal balances while safeguarding critical social and economic investment to protect growth and the most vulnerable. Stronger fiscal consolidation would help reduce debt vulnerabilities and the financial sector’s exposure to the public sector and also facilitate external rebalancing thereby reducing external vulnerabilities.
7. A multipronged strategy is recommended to broaden revenues and rationalize expenditures to preserve vital social and economic investments for resilient growth. Revenue mobilization should build on recent initiatives to reduce the reliance on CBI inflows, including rationalizing tax incentives to curb leakage, enhancing VAT yields via a rate adjustment, pursuing levies on tourism and highways, introducing a solid waste fee, and improving tax administration and compliance. On the expenditure side, exploiting further efficiencies in goods and services spending while sustaining restraint in wages are priorities. A reprioritization of expenditure outlays is also essential, including revamping the National Employment Program (NEP) into a revolving skills training program to alleviate skills gaps within the economy, and recalibrating the housing program to provide support on a need basis through means-testing and with cost recovery mechanisms. Additionally, tariff adjustments on key public services should be pursued, thus reducing government transfers and contingent liability risks.
8. Enhancing the targeting and sustainability of social protection programs is a key part of the adjustment strategy to safeguard social inclusion and resilience. Dominica’s social protection framework is fragmented and mostly unconditional, with expenditures nearly twice that of peers with similar per capita GDP. Reducing overlap and improving targeting requires a centralized beneficiary registry and information management system to monitor support, identify gaps and duplication, and facilitate payments. To ensure pension system sustainability, further parametric reforms are needed, including higher contribution rates, lower replacement rates, and establishing a harmonized national retirement age of 65.
9. Reducing balance sheet vulnerabilities and strengthening regulatory oversight is critical. For banks, efforts should focus on stricter enforcement of provisioning and NPL standards, managing loan loss allowances, and facilitating the disposal of impaired assets, while closely monitoring sovereign and foreign investment exposures. For credit unions, the push to modernize the regulatory framework and close arbitrage opportunities by the end of 2025 is timely. Priorities should include reinforcing the operational independence of the Financial Supervisory Unit (FSU), enhancing risk-based supervision tools, updating regulatory thresholds, articulating strengthened provisioning and loan management frameworks, and bolstering enforcement tools. Broader financial stability can also be reinforced by: i) participating in the ECCB’s regional initiative to set common minimum regulatory standards for non-bank financial institutions, ii) ensuring the FSU is adequately resourced for monitoring asset quality (especially for restructured loans and forbearance measures), iii) conducting regular audits and on-site examinations, especially for larger credit unions, and iv) strengthening governance via enhanced “fit and proper” criteria for board members.
10. Addressing structural challenges that hinder financial intermediation remains a priority. Despite abundant liquidity in the banking system, businesses continue to face barriers to access financing that stem, in part, from long-standing structural deficiencies related to weak credit information, outdated collateral and foreclosure laws, and inefficient bankruptcy procedures. The upcoming launch of a regional credit bureau should streamline the lending process and improve credit quality. This should be complemented by reforms to modernize national collateral, foreclosure, and bankruptcy frameworks and efforts to streamline loan documentation processes.
11. Continued structural reforms are essential for fostering resilient and sustainable growth. Persistent structural bottlenecks have weighed on growth potential by weakening contributions from human and physical capital and eroding innovation and productivity. Eliminating gaps in education and training relative to economic needs is essential to improve labor market outcomes. Resilient infrastructure is crucial to safeguard physical capital from natural disaster shocks and the transition to geothermal power generation is pivotal to reduce external vulnerabilities and bolster prospects for resilient growth. A comprehensive policy approach is required to alleviate impediments to innovation and allocative efficiency. Efforts to redress skills gaps and improve financial intermediation should be complemented by measures to improve the business environment, including by exploiting digitalization opportunities and streamlining regulatory and administrative processes for tax compliance, business registration, licensing, and permitting.
12. Concerted efforts to bolster institutional frameworks to mitigate risks and support surveillance, economic planning, and policy execution should continue. Ongoing efforts to strengthen AML/CFT legislation and procedures in line with the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force (CFATF) mutual evaluation should help protect correspondent bank relationships. Progress to enhance coordination across regional CBI programs to improve due diligence and transparency is welcome. Dominica should maintain its strategy of proactive engagement to address concerns around its CBI regime to safeguard this critical source for development finance. Weaknesses in statistical compilation, tax administration, and public financial management (PFM) frameworks—including under-developed internal CBI reporting systems—complicate policy monitoring, development, and execution. Priorities for ongoing engagement include strengthening institutional capacity in statistical compilation and improving PFM processes across fiscal reporting, treasury operations, public investment management, and budget processes to enable full fiscal rule implementation. The IMF stands ready to build on its ongoing capacity development program with Dominica in these and other areas.

Table 1. Dominica: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020–27

Prel. Projections

Sources: Dominican authorities; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB); and Fund staff estimates and projections.

At market prices.

Data for fiscal years from July to June. Figures shown for a given year relate to the fiscal year beginning on July 1 of that year.

Includes estimated commitments under the Petrocaribe arrangement with Venezuela.

Includes public capital expenditure-induced imports from 2019 onwards to account for possible mitigation of natural disasters.

A positive sign means inflow.

Comprises public sector external debt, foreign liabilities of commercial banks, and other private debt. Calendar year basis.

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Context and Recent Developments

Slovenia’s economy recovered well from the pandemic, only to be hit by spillovers from the war in Ukraine. After a strong recovery in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 because of adverse energy price spillovers from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Growth is estimated to have fallen further last year to less than 1½ percent, reflecting subdued consumption, the unwinding of inventories, and weaker growth in trading partners.

Severe floods in August 2023 pose new challenges. Although the impact on economic growth was minor, direct damage is estimated by the authorities at almost 5 percent of GDP, with the cost of upgrading infrastructure to be more climate resilient estimated to be much higher. The government adopted emergency relief legislation shortly after the floods to assist those affected and to start reconstruction efforts.

Despite slower growth, the labor market remains tight. Unemployment is at a historic low and labor shortages have emerged in certain sectors, relieved only by net inward migration of foreign workers. Following earlier real wage declines, nominal wage growth has begun to outpace inflation.

Inflation has fallen from earlier highs. As pressures from commodity prices abated, and as tighter monetary policy fed through to prices, inflation fell noticeably in the second half of 2023, more than halving to about 4 percent in December compared to about 3 percent in the euro area.

Outlook and Risks

Growth is expected to recover and inflation to fall further this year. Despite tighter fiscal policy, growth is expected to increase to about 2 percent in 2024, led by domestic demand, including higher flood-related investment, and by higher consumption as real wages recover. Growth should return to its potential of about 2½-2¾ percent over the medium term as private consumption and euro area trading partners gather strength. Under the assumption of broadly stable commodity prices and interest rates on hold in the first half of the year, inflation is projected to decline to below 3 percent by the year and to 2 percent in 2025. The current account is expected to remain in surplus over the medium term.

Uncertainty remains high and risks appear on the downside. External risks include an intensification of regional conflicts, renewed commodity price volatility, and lower external demand. Supply chain disruptions pose additional risks but also may create opportunities for Slovenia in the event of nearshoring. Labor shortages and broader capacity constraints could affect post-flood reconstruction or undermine disinflation. Finally, new severe weather events could cause significant economic disruptions.

Fiscal Policy

A tighter fiscal stance would help reduce debt, rebuild fiscal space, and support disinflation. Given underlying increases in core public spending in recent years, age-related spending pressures, and relatively high public debt, sustained fiscal consolidation and fiscal structural reforms are needed to underpin long-term public debt sustainability. The elimination of remaining pandemic and energy measures will help such consolidation, despite additional flood-related spending. The authorities should also continue with their active debt management, which has helped to lower debt servicing costs, improve the debt profile, and allow the buildup of ample public cash buffers.

A phased and transparent approach to flood-related spending is critical. Lower-priority needs should only be addressed as labor market conditions ease. Otherwise, there is a danger of flood-related spending fueling construction cost increases rather than providing for needed rebuilding. The authorities’ transparency in handling flood-related spending—including by publishing details of publicly financed projects—is welcome given the extent of public spending.

Although ad hoc in nature, recent revenue measures to raise temporary corporate and bank taxes will help finance post-flood reconstruction. The bank tax is not ideal, including the use of bank assets as a taxation base, although the cap on the tax, set at 30 percent of banks’ pre-tax profits, is a welcome safeguard. EU grants and Slovenian Sovereign Holding profits will also support the rebuilding and upgrading of infrastructure.

Key structural fiscal reforms should be accelerated. Reforming the pension system remains a priority given the higher expected pension spending over the medium and longer term. Reforms to the retirement age, years of contributions (linked to life expectancy), and indexation would help contain pension costs. Stronger second and third pension pillars would help increase retirement savings and support capital market development. Public wage reforms—linking pay more closely to skills and performance—are also important given the high public wage bill alongside difficulties in hiring and retaining qualified staff. Reducing labor taxes while broadening the corporate and income tax bases and increasing property tax would also be helpful. Planned comprehensive reforms of the health sector should continue. Finally, building on the recommendations of the IMF’s recent Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA), improved project preparation, evaluation, selection, and permit times would help increase public investment efficiency, which is important given the scale of public investment.

Financial Sector Policies

Banks appear in good health. Bank profitability and bank capital adequacy are strong and bank liquidity is among the strongest in the euro area. Bank of Slovenia stress test results also point to bank resilience.

Ongoing uncertainties warrant continued close monitoring of asset quality. Nonperforming loans are at historic lows, but high-interest rates increase repayment and rollover risks, particularly for firms where loans are of shorter maturity or at variable rates.

The Bank of Slovenia’s macroprudential stance is appropriate. The new positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer of one percent will help further strengthen capital buffers and strengthen the capacity of the banking system to respond to adverse shocks. The impact on financial intermediation of this measure is expected to be limited. Increased access to credit for lower-income borrowers is welcome. Finally, the reduction of the sectoral risk buffer on real estate exposures is appropriate given reduced risks in the housing market as valuation measures have softened.

Progress has been made on AML/CFT. This includes amendments to the Criminal Code; new Bank of Slovenia regulations and guidelines on related risks; guidance to banks on risk assessment; and measures to supervise virtual assets.

Structural Policies

Deeper structural reforms would help boost growth and foster greater income convergence. Convergence has slowed since the Global Financial Crisis as investment and productivity growth have fallen. Although labor contributions to growth have been strong in recent years—reflecting increased labor force participation, lower unemployment, and positive net inward migration—the limits to future such gains call for a shift to a focus on productivity growth, a key priority. Productivity would be helped by higher overall investment and by further structural reforms, supported by the EU-backed National Recovery and Resilience Plan and Cohesion policy funding. Addressing skill shortages and mismatches, improving regulatory quality, and deepening the financial sector would also help boost productivity growth.

The recent floods underscore the importance of continuing to adapt to climate change. As floods pose the highest risk, efforts should be focused on flood risk management, including zoning. On mitigation, continuing to promote investment in renewables and reducing carbon price exemptions in polluting industries would help Slovenia achieve its climate goals.

The team would like to thank the authorities for their exceptional assistance with the mission’s work and the authorities and other stakeholders for their warm hospitality and comprehensive and constructive discussions.

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

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