Key Highlights:
• Sales slowdown: Annual residential sales declined by 8%, from 93,737 units in June 2024 to 86,666 units in June 2025.
• Prices rise: Overall price appreciation has been a moderate 7.3%.
• Reduction in supply: New launches dropped by 10.3%, from 99,166 units to 88,941 units over the past 12 months.
• Sticker Shock impact: 76% increase in average ticket sizes over five years due to a 40% price rise and 25% increase in home sizes.
• Diverging Buyer behaviour: Sales of homes <1,200 sq ft fell 17%, while larger homes >1,200 sq ft rose by 13%.
• Affordability Index weakens: Affordability deteriorates by 45% to 6.52x annual income from 4.38x over the last 5 years.
• Inventory Overhang rises: Inventory overhang rose to 10.78 months, the highest since 2020, highlighting the softening sales pace. Total available inventory now stands at 77,825 units.
• Structural shift in projects: Number of large projects (>500 units) increased by 70% since 2018; small projects continue to decline.
PUNE: Gera Developments Private Limited (GDPL), pioneers in premium residential and commercial real estate in Pune, Goa, Bengaluru, and California, today released the July 2025 edition of their bi-annual report, The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report. As Pune’s only census-based real estate study running for 14 years and covering over 2,300 projects and 3+ lakh under-construction homes, the report presents an authoritative, data-driven view of market dynamics for the 12 months ended June 2025.
This year’s report marks a notable transition in Pune’s residential real estate landscape. After seven years of consistent growth in prices, sales, and supply, the market is experiencing a consolidation phase driven by ‘sticker shock’, the cumulative effect of rising prices and increasing home sizes.
While prices rose at a moderate 7.31% year-on-year, this still added significantly to total ticket sizes. Over the past five years, prices have climbed by 40% and average home sizes by 25%, resulting in an overall 76% increase in the average sticker price. Consequently, buyers in the Budget and Upper-mid segments are facing affordability challenges, while affluent buyers are gravitating towards larger, more comfortable homes.
Speaking about the market shifts, Rohit Gera, Managing Director, Gera Developments Private Limited, said, “We are witnessing the market respond to a steep escalation in total ticket size, what we’re calling Sticker Shock. Even though interest rates have come down over the last 6 months, affordability remains a concern as the total outgo for buyers has increased by 76% over five years. The steep increase in sticker price has led to sticker shock and has caused people to slow down their purchase decision, resulting in the demand softening. Developers are responding cautiously by slowing new launches and recalibrating configurations. I expect smaller home sizes to return to the market, making homes more affordable not through pricing corrections but by offering compact yet efficient layouts. For buyers, this is a critical time – choosing projects by developers with strong financial stability is more important than ever.”
Market Trends and Analysis:
• Replacement Ratio: The replacement ratio of 1.08 indicates a mildly oversupplied market. In a cyclical market like real estate, mild oversupply eventually corrects itself, restoring the market equilibrium.
• New project prices: Prices of new projects launched are down by 4.73% over the last year, while the overall market is still on an uptrend.
• East Pune prices rise: East Pune recorded the highest price appreciation across the city, marking a 9.6% growth, followed by West Pune, which saw a 6.8% appreciation.
• Project Landscape: Pune now has 2,605 residential projects under development, up 6.7% over June 2024. However, the market is consolidating, small projects (<100 units) fell 39% since 2018, while large projects (>500 units) surged by 70%.
• Metro Influence: Areas such as Hinjewadi, connected by the new Metro corridors, have seen stable pricing and increased traction from affordability-focused buyers.
Looking Ahead:
Pune’s real estate market is entering a phase of strategic recalibration. While supportive economic signals such as the RBI’s recent 50 basis point rate cut suggest a favourable policy environment, market recovery has yet to gain real momentum. At the same time, transformative infrastructure projects like the Ring Road and Metro expansion are set to redefine growth corridors over the next decade. To stay resilient, developers must focus on rightsized products, calibrated launches, and sharper value propositions tailored to specific segments. As the market evolves to serve a changing demographic, understanding these shifts will be critical for stakeholders navigating this new landscape.