Union Budget Reaction By CRISIL Principal Economist

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CRISIL Ltd
Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, CRISIL Ltd

Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, CRISIL Limited

The budget responsibly deploys the higher revenues (tax and non-tax revenues) on reducing the fiscal deficit, sustaining spending on investments, and making way for higher spending to support segments of the economy that require support. Overall, the quality of spending remains intact despite the slight tilt towards revenue spending.

A lower fiscal deficit and non-inflationary nature of spending are inflation-positive, while lower market borrowings will help temper yields. We expect the 10-year government bond yields to average 6.8% by March 2025, from 7% in March 2024. On the back of a normal monsoon and cooling food inflation, we expect headline consumer price inflation to soften to 4.5% average this fiscal from 5.4% in the last. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 6.8% for fiscal 2025 – a moderation from 8.2% in fiscal 2024 led by tighter lending conditions.”

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